5.4% edge · Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers win
39.4%
Atlanta Braves win
60.6%
Fair line (home)
-154
Proj. total
8.07
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.65)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.42)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.07
Over
49.2%
Under
38.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 39.4% | +119 | +154 |
| Atlanta Braves | 60.6% | -129 | -154 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | 4.7 | .672 | .215 | .018 | .192 | .265 | 1.248 | .251 | .299 | .441 | .740 |
| Brice Turang | 4.5 | .701 | .166 | .020 | .118 | .414 | 1.223 | .244 | .317 | .380 | .698 |
| William Contreras | 4.5 | .711 | .176 | .005 | .144 | .421 | .999 | .260 | .335 | .415 | .750 |
| Gary Sánchez | 4.3 | .497 | .107 | .018 | .181 | .357 | 1.361 | .206 | .288 | .382 | .669 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 4.2 | .620 | .165 | .014 | .144 | .265 | 1.004 | .240 | .296 | .399 | .696 |
| Blake Perkins | 4.1 | .537 | .129 | .014 | .062 | .328 | 1.331 | .197 | .270 | .288 | .558 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.0 | .500 | .137 | .024 | .102 | .363 | 1.548 | .211 | .291 | .347 | .638 |
| Cooper Pratt | 3.9 | .534 | .121 | .024 | .063 | .305 | .974 | .209 | .280 | .309 | .589 |
| Joey Ortiz | 3.8 | .583 | .142 | .014 | .069 | .273 | .813 | .233 | .295 | .341 | .636 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.5 | .799 | .188 | .018 | .098 | .284 | .703 | .261 | .312 | .383 | .696 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.4 | .716 | .151 | .013 | .209 | .472 | .882 | .278 | .361 | .482 | .843 |
| Matt Olson | 4.3 | .558 | .180 | .008 | .249 | .555 | 1.109 | .265 | .365 | .517 | .882 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.2 | .685 | .170 | .008 | .142 | .316 | .695 | .260 | .324 | .418 | .742 |
| Michael Harris II | 4.1 | .729 | .160 | .026 | .197 | .204 | .883 | .285 | .325 | .491 | .816 |
| Austin Riley | 4.0 | .563 | .154 | .015 | .171 | .351 | 1.173 | .249 | .324 | .442 | .766 |
| Eli White | 3.9 | .585 | .110 | .032 | .114 | .286 | 1.103 | .235 | .299 | .378 | .678 |
| Joey Bart | 3.8 | .577 | .119 | .009 | .108 | .382 | 1.145 | .243 | .333 | .382 | .715 |
| Jorge Mateo | 3.7 | .522 | .157 | .011 | .101 | .236 | 1.035 | .232 | .286 | .373 | .659 |
Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections