10.6% edge · Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers win
49.4%
Atlanta Braves win
50.6%
Fair line (home)
-102
Proj. total
8.48
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.35)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.12)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.48
Over
53.4%
Under
35.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 49.4% | -158 | +102 |
| Atlanta Braves | 50.6% | +145 | -102 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 4.8 | .765 | .167 | .015 | .151 | .530 | 1.167 | .257 | .344 | .410 | .753 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4.7 | .750 | .238 | .018 | .196 | .316 | .978 | .275 | .327 | .473 | .800 |
| Brice Turang | 4.6 | .763 | .173 | .021 | .122 | .484 | .982 | .264 | .344 | .406 | .751 |
| William Contreras | 4.5 | .749 | .190 | .006 | .146 | .503 | .772 | .275 | .360 | .437 | .796 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.4 | .604 | .171 | .028 | .117 | .459 | 1.427 | .236 | .322 | .384 | .706 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 4.3 | .669 | .187 | .014 | .153 | .302 | .813 | .259 | .318 | .430 | .748 |
| Blake Perkins | 4.2 | .606 | .142 | .017 | .069 | .384 | 1.085 | .222 | .300 | .323 | .623 |
| Cooper Pratt | 4.1 | .600 | .129 | .024 | .067 | .361 | .803 | .224 | .300 | .327 | .627 |
| Joey Ortiz | 3.9 | .636 | .160 | .017 | .077 | .313 | .664 | .247 | .311 | .365 | .676 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | 4.6 | .703 | .152 | .011 | .201 | .540 | 1.049 | .266 | .360 | .460 | .821 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.5 | .696 | .173 | .011 | .141 | .381 | .838 | .253 | .328 | .407 | .735 |
| Matt Olson | 4.4 | .524 | .170 | .007 | .211 | .605 | 1.248 | .245 | .357 | .465 | .822 |
| Dominic Smith | 4.3 | .664 | .143 | .018 | .110 | .393 | 1.024 | .245 | .324 | .377 | .702 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.2 | .721 | .167 | .017 | .073 | .287 | .733 | .255 | .312 | .365 | .677 |
| Austin Riley | 4.1 | .549 | .150 | .013 | .149 | .373 | 1.299 | .237 | .318 | .409 | .727 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 4.0 | .460 | .138 | .019 | .125 | .495 | 1.118 | .217 | .324 | .379 | .703 |
| Eli White | 3.8 | .558 | .110 | .028 | .097 | .291 | 1.169 | .227 | .297 | .358 | .655 |
| Jorge Mateo | 3.7 | .519 | .154 | .011 | .085 | .252 | 1.157 | .224 | .284 | .350 | .634 |
Data notes: home starter Martín Pérez: only 72 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections