San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

Adrian Houser vs Grant Holmes · 2026-06-16 · 72°F

2.4% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

41.4%

Atlanta Braves win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

9.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.23)Atlanta Braves (mean 4.91)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.14

Over

41.7%

Under

47.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	41.4%	+151	+142
Atlanta Braves	58.6%	-165	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.8	1.087	.207	.046	.044	.264	.234	.308	.351	.404	.756
Bryce Eldridge	4.7	.625	.194	.005	.161	.438	1.429	.234	.311	.398	.709
Matt Chapman	4.6	.590	.194	.016	.142	.514	1.121	.236	.330	.399	.729
Rafael Devers	4.5	.546	.178	.010	.184	.530	1.191	.236	.333	.429	.762
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.809	.207	.048	.066	.297	.511	.282	.337	.406	.744
Willy Adames	4.2	.529	.166	.013	.151	.435	1.106	.227	.311	.397	.708
Casey Schmitt	4.1	.625	.162	.015	.144	.244	.920	.246	.299	.408	.707
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.551	.158	.030	.094	.327	.846	.229	.301	.366	.667
Daniel Susac	3.9	.614	.147	.020	.074	.229	1.032	.236	.289	.349	.639

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.878	.184	.014	.173	.473	.677	.298	.375	.473	.848
Michael Harris II	4.6	.911	.226	.032	.162	.207	.700	.306	.343	.485	.828
Matt Olson	4.5	.684	.236	.009	.192	.534	.863	.287	.377	.500	.877
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.793	.198	.014	.113	.324	.499	.280	.342	.421	.763
Dominic Smith	4.3	.805	.176	.016	.092	.336	.659	.280	.345	.405	.751
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.839	.206	.018	.062	.241	.435	.289	.336	.400	.736
Austin Riley	4.0	.677	.184	.018	.138	.331	.919	.277	.345	.450	.795
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.576	.171	.020	.108	.449	.756	.253	.345	.407	.752
Ha-Seong Kim	3.8	.659	.145	.014	.063	.442	.576	.263	.354	.371	.725

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections