0.7% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins win
44.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
55.4%
Fair line (home)
-124
Proj. total
9.53
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Minnesota Twins (mean 4.63)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.90)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.53
Over
45.2%
Under
44.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 44.6% | +116 | +124 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.4% | -126 | -124 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.8 | .761 | .201 | .016 | .149 | .502 | 1.012 | .263 | .345 | .422 | .767 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.7 | .644 | .195 | .038 | .277 | .348 | 1.170 | .268 | .332 | .524 | .856 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.6 | .652 | .196 | .036 | .192 | .310 | .996 | .254 | .311 | .453 | .764 |
| Josh Bell | 4.5 | .710 | .169 | .008 | .157 | .411 | .861 | .259 | .333 | .422 | .755 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.4 | .657 | .184 | .005 | .195 | .329 | .920 | .259 | .318 | .452 | .771 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.3 | .719 | .163 | .020 | .136 | .269 | .665 | .261 | .313 | .415 | .728 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.2 | .723 | .134 | .005 | .108 | .302 | .723 | .258 | .327 | .382 | .709 |
| Luke Keaschall | 4.0 | .750 | .188 | .017 | .066 | .348 | .597 | .281 | .354 | .397 | .751 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 3.9 | .513 | .142 | .018 | .087 | .373 | 1.167 | .216 | .298 | .340 | .638 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.7 | .768 | .213 | .029 | .229 | .491 | .755 | .297 | .378 | .527 | .905 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.6 | .806 | .169 | .041 | .102 | .602 | .605 | .284 | .386 | .426 | .812 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.5 | .613 | .176 | .090 | .210 | .541 | .929 | .280 | .374 | .533 | .907 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4.4 | .781 | .203 | .017 | .149 | .289 | .733 | .284 | .338 | .453 | .791 |
| Pavin Smith | 4.3 | .625 | .170 | .015 | .125 | .582 | 1.058 | .255 | .360 | .412 | .771 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .698 | .191 | .011 | .143 | .327 | .668 | .274 | .338 | .442 | .780 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 4.1 | .566 | .187 | .011 | .132 | .353 | 1.130 | .243 | .314 | .408 | .722 |
| Jorge Barrosa | 4.0 | .582 | .171 | .022 | .064 | .333 | .982 | .234 | .304 | .348 | .652 |
| Tommy Troy | 3.8 | .656 | .163 | .029 | .065 | .343 | .868 | .265 | .337 | .385 | .722 |
Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections