5.8% edge · Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins win
44.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
55.1%
Fair line (home)
-123
Proj. total
9.53
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Minnesota Twins (mean 4.62)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.91)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.53
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 44.9% | +150 | +123 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.1% | -164 | -123 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.8 | .751 | .188 | .018 | .146 | .512 | 1.094 | .259 | .346 | .414 | .760 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.7 | .606 | .193 | .037 | .270 | .353 | 1.235 | .259 | .328 | .511 | .839 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.6 | .611 | .190 | .038 | .191 | .312 | 1.056 | .244 | .306 | .444 | .750 |
| Josh Bell | 4.5 | .712 | .171 | .009 | .148 | .416 | .909 | .259 | .337 | .417 | .754 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.4 | .631 | .181 | .005 | .191 | .335 | .965 | .252 | .315 | .442 | .757 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.3 | .726 | .157 | .018 | .132 | .275 | .729 | .261 | .316 | .410 | .726 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.2 | .703 | .134 | .007 | .107 | .313 | .774 | .256 | .335 | .383 | .717 |
| Tristan Gray | 4.0 | .558 | .168 | .017 | .132 | .259 | 1.160 | .233 | .290 | .393 | .683 |
| Luke Keaschall | 3.9 | .718 | .170 | .016 | .061 | .350 | .633 | .276 | .356 | .386 | .741 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.7 | .783 | .216 | .016 | .185 | .455 | .768 | .285 | .363 | .476 | .839 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.6 | .820 | .184 | .031 | .091 | .548 | .588 | .282 | .377 | .412 | .788 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.5 | .611 | .183 | .099 | .189 | .527 | .912 | .277 | .370 | .519 | .889 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.4 | .808 | .210 | .013 | .118 | .468 | .756 | .296 | .376 | .448 | .824 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4.3 | .750 | .201 | .017 | .139 | .286 | .707 | .280 | .335 | .445 | .780 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .702 | .180 | .009 | .130 | .340 | .672 | .270 | .338 | .426 | .763 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.1 | .778 | .163 | .032 | .076 | .203 | .439 | .275 | .320 | .394 | .714 |
| Jordan Lawlar | 4.0 | .607 | .189 | .041 | .087 | .348 | 1.038 | .260 | .335 | .410 | .745 |
| LuJames Groover | 3.8 | .709 | .168 | .013 | .066 | .372 | .714 | .280 | .357 | .394 | .751 |
Data notes: away starter Connor Prielipp: only 57 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections