Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Andrew Alvarez · 87°F

0.4% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

49.2%

Washington Nationals win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.45)Washington Nationals (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.72

Over

37.8%

Under

52.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	49.2%	+101	+103
Washington Nationals	50.8%	-109	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	4.8	3.1	5.3	1.1	2.3
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.0	2.8	4.3	1.6	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Janson Junk4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Andrew Alvarez4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.9	.653	.193	.022	.191	.522	1.194	.246	.333	.434	.767
Otto Lopez	4.8	.946	.221	.045	.088	.319	.582	.296	.348	.426	.774
Agustín Ramírez	4.6	.686	.231	.017	.144	.387	.843	.257	.326	.422	.749
Esteury Ruiz	4.5	.683	.188	.026	.106	.402	1.045	.248	.329	.386	.716
Xavier Edwards	4.4	.960	.147	.043	.040	.413	.520	.299	.368	.387	.755
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.768	.255	.032	.074	.265	.348	.280	.327	.414	.741
Leo Jiménez	4.2	.707	.181	.009	.078	.362	.755	.262	.347	.378	.725
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.589	.149	.040	.089	.500	.789	.245	.347	.385	.732
Brian Navarreto	4.0	.571	.155	.014	.088	.228	.884	.223	.276	.343	.619

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.6	.732	.211	.032	.201	.288	.799	.280	.339	.489	.828
Abimelec Ortiz	4.5	.636	.202	.011	.232	.299	.881	.262	.318	.486	.804
Andrés Chaparro	4.3	.606	.197	.004	.205	.303	.866	.253	.311	.457	.769
Daylen Lile	4.3	.745	.194	.065	.120	.232	.657	.283	.328	.454	.783
Dylan Crews	4.1	.620	.177	.015	.150	.264	.822	.251	.309	.423	.732
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.684	.162	.015	.067	.338	.507	.256	.330	.364	.694
Harry Ford	3.9	.563	.159	.007	.102	.387	.871	.238	.322	.375	.698
Jacob Young	3.8	.718	.157	.021	.070	.227	.586	.273	.325	.387	.712
Nasim Nuñez	3.7	.689	.092	.028	.044	.308	.709	.254	.321	.337	.657

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections