Athletics vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Gage Jump vs Jacob deGrom · 72°F

5.1% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

38.4%

Texas Rangers win

61.6%

Fair line (home)

-161

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.72)Texas Rangers (mean 4.62)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.34

Over

52.2%

Under

47.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	38.4%	+194	+161
Texas Rangers	61.6%	-214	-161

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gage Jump LHP · Athletics	5.0	5.0	5.2	2.1	2.6
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.3	6.1	4.6	1.1	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Gage Jump4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Jacob deGrom4+ 88%6+ 58%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.703	.172	.021	.141	.268	1.575	.241	.294	.389	.683
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.753	.189	.014	.111	.291	.693	.256	.313	.388	.702
Zack Gelof	4.4	.576	.165	.012	.185	.299	1.417	.230	.288	.413	.701
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.556	.164	.016	.167	.347	1.262	.229	.293	.405	.698
Tommy White	4.2	.697	.166	.012	.124	.153	.861	.248	.281	.388	.668
Max Muncy	4.1	.547	.160	.017	.128	.211	1.383	.222	.270	.373	.643
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.545	.176	.013	.135	.290	.891	.237	.297	.402	.699
Jonah Heim	3.9	.529	.133	.004	.134	.233	.876	.221	.272	.371	.643
Darell Hernaiz	3.7	.632	.146	.012	.052	.271	.700	.244	.303	.338	.642

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ezequiel Duran	4.6	.755	.217	.025	.123	.318	1.096	.264	.322	.414	.735
Corey Seager	4.5	.680	.181	.004	.221	.574	.897	.280	.378	.499	.878
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.639	.184	.022	.181	.553	.990	.270	.369	.473	.842
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.686	.189	.022	.149	.462	.931	.277	.365	.457	.823
Jake Burger	4.2	.624	.161	.006	.204	.300	1.059	.259	.321	.462	.783
Justin Foscue	4.1	.563	.181	.013	.134	.397	.860	.245	.328	.413	.741
Elias Díaz	4.0	.600	.161	.005	.111	.268	.957	.239	.297	.377	.674
Cody Freeman	3.9	.635	.174	.008	.111	.249	.597	.260	.312	.406	.718
Danny Jansen	3.7	.444	.130	.012	.136	.450	.907	.224	.330	.398	.728

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections