New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Robert Stock vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

5.7% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

43.1%

Tampa Bay Rays win

56.9%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

8.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 3.93)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.35)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.27

Over

51.5%

Under

48.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	43.1%	+162	+132
Tampa Bay Rays	56.9%	-177	-132

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robert Stock RHP · New York Mets	4.6	3.6	4.8	2.0	2.2
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.8	2.7	2.4	0.9	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Robert Stock4+ 49%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Ian Seymour4+ 29%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.631	.143	.018	.187	.381	.936	.234	.311	.410	.722
Bo Bichette	4.5	.771	.175	.015	.133	.292	.848	.259	.312	.401	.713
Carson Benge	4.4	.674	.140	.028	.144	.319	1.018	.242	.306	.397	.702
Mark Vientos	4.3	.526	.146	.010	.212	.274	1.173	.222	.279	.421	.700
Jared Young	4.2	.551	.147	.023	.166	.334	1.028	.231	.303	.410	.713
Christopher Morel	4.1	.458	.130	.006	.171	.345	1.304	.204	.279	.380	.658
Marcus Semien	4.0	.510	.114	.012	.137	.329	.829	.211	.281	.361	.642
A.J. Ewing	3.9	.604	.147	.020	.066	.328	1.010	.236	.305	.344	.649
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.446	.113	.005	.181	.341	1.058	.219	.299	.416	.715

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.831	.185	.011	.148	.487	.685	.288	.373	.448	.821
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.710	.165	.005	.141	.524	1.110	.260	.360	.413	.773
Junior Caminero	4.4	.629	.162	.008	.264	.460	.853	.271	.352	.518	.870
Liam Hicks	4.3	.691	.148	.012	.106	.529	.564	.259	.367	.392	.759
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.964	.131	.048	.012	.263	.430	.293	.340	.360	.700
Cedric Mullins	4.1	.535	.141	.026	.130	.397	.913	.227	.311	.386	.697
Jonny DeLuca	4.0	.567	.166	.022	.124	.292	.805	.240	.304	.399	.702
Richie Palacios	3.9	.568	.137	.021	.067	.477	.752	.236	.339	.349	.689
Taylor Walls	3.8	.481	.127	.025	.046	.428	.926	.206	.302	.301	.603

Data notes: away starter Robert Stock: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Robert Stock: only 36 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections