San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Michael King vs Brady Singer · 92°F

1.2% edge · Cincinnati Reds

San Diego Padres win

56.0%

Cincinnati Reds win

44.0%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

10.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.79)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.00)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.8

Over

55.5%

Under

35.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	56.0%	-140	-127
Cincinnati Reds	44.0%	+129	+127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	5.5	5.4	2.1	2.9
Brady Singer RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	4.1	6.0	1.7	3.1

Strikeout ladder

Michael King4+ 80%6+ 47%8+ 18%

Brady Singer4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.832	.219	.019	.298	.493	.880	.309	.385	.569	.955
Jake Cronenworth	4.9	.728	.199	.016	.160	.489	.938	.258	.348	.425	.773
Manny Machado	4.8	.739	.197	.003	.311	.405	.907	.290	.354	.553	.907
Ty France	4.6	.795	.185	.015	.213	.282	.869	.288	.356	.491	.847
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.719	.204	.033	.256	.289	.919	.288	.338	.535	.873
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.785	.175	.005	.172	.417	.736	.287	.361	.464	.824
Dustin Harris	4.3	.688	.164	.029	.143	.328	.897	.260	.325	.425	.750
Luis Campusano	4.2	.662	.158	.006	.217	.408	.816	.277	.354	.495	.849
Sung-Mun Song	4.1	.700	.145	.010	.117	.323	.712	.259	.321	.397	.718

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.7	.702	.165	.033	.256	.273	1.033	.264	.312	.493	.805
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.640	.167	.054	.226	.488	1.234	.269	.352	.506	.858
Sal Stewart	4.4	.647	.193	.002	.253	.419	.986	.275	.349	.515	.864
JJ Bleday	4.3	.504	.167	.014	.249	.551	1.012	.248	.347	.498	.845
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.589	.168	.004	.180	.454	1.169	.251	.339	.442	.781
Eugenio Suárez	4.1	.450	.141	.003	.283	.387	1.331	.238	.322	.509	.831
Matt McLain	4.0	.511	.158	.004	.152	.421	1.162	.232	.322	.407	.729
TJ Friedl	3.9	.567	.133	.014	.129	.404	.809	.245	.337	.405	.742
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.647	.135	.036	.101	.198	.851	.258	.306	.402	.708

Data notes: game-time temp 92F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections