Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Kyle Harrison vs Clay Holmes · 81°F

0.0% edge · Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers win

49.3%

Chicago Cubs win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.80)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.52)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.32

Over

43.0%

Under

57.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	49.3%	-101	+103
Chicago Cubs	50.7%	-107	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Harrison LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.6	4.6	4.4	1.8	2.2
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.0	4.4	5.4	2.5	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Harrison4+ 70%6+ 32%8+ 8%

Clay Holmes4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	5.0	.827	.203	.022	.111	.566	1.062	.266	.352	.398	.751
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.799	.236	.015	.174	.398	1.001	.278	.343	.456	.799
Jake Bauers	4.7	.622	.168	.017	.178	.683	1.213	.246	.362	.430	.792
William Contreras	4.6	.783	.192	.008	.135	.561	.734	.278	.371	.430	.801
Christian Yelich	4.5	.716	.161	.016	.130	.537	1.061	.260	.355	.407	.762
Garrett Mitchell	4.4	.641	.188	.029	.101	.526	1.306	.250	.347	.393	.740
Sal Frelick	4.3	.792	.182	.015	.070	.392	.526	.274	.348	.383	.731
David Hamilton	4.2	.601	.134	.028	.087	.400	.972	.226	.304	.345	.649
Cooper Pratt	4.1	.650	.138	.030	.070	.419	.771	.246	.332	.360	.692

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.597	.179	.047	.236	.392	1.300	.254	.327	.489	.816
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.597	.182	.012	.207	.531	1.227	.252	.345	.462	.807
Alex Bregman	4.4	.647	.176	.008	.167	.508	.730	.259	.352	.438	.791
Tyrone Taylor	4.3	.598	.187	.019	.143	.244	1.042	.237	.293	.401	.694
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.808	.183	.012	.065	.316	.444	.279	.344	.384	.727
Michael Busch	4.1	.527	.145	.025	.180	.465	1.058	.246	.343	.453	.796
Carson Kelly	4.0	.590	.134	.006	.138	.419	.836	.246	.334	.406	.739
Miguel Amaya	3.9	.531	.144	.008	.113	.331	.981	.229	.310	.373	.683
Matt Shaw	3.8	.532	.130	.030	.131	.361	.810	.245	.326	.419	.746

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections