San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Anthony Molina vs Bryce Elder · 91°F

4.3% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

39.9%

Atlanta Braves win

60.1%

Fair line (home)

-151

Proj. total

9.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.45)Atlanta Braves (mean 5.18)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.63

Over

46.4%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	39.9%	+175	+151
Atlanta Braves	60.1%	-192	-151

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Molina RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.2	1.5	2.7	0.8	1.2
Bryce Elder RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.4	4.1	6.0	1.7	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Molina4+ 6%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Bryce Elder4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.8	.735	.197	.037	.138	.375	.796	.254	.322	.411	.733
Rafael Devers	4.7	.637	.222	.009	.249	.508	1.084	.270	.354	.508	.862
Bryce Eldridge	4.6	.673	.194	.005	.207	.421	1.215	.262	.333	.462	.795
Jonah Cox	4.5	.844	.143	.090	.077	.232	1.024	.274	.317	.406	.722
Jung Hoo Lee	4.4	.848	.227	.045	.087	.247	.431	.296	.342	.438	.780
Osleivis Basabe	4.3	.745	.200	.015	.097	.212	.646	.263	.306	.393	.699
Andrew Knizner	4.2	.657	.165	.010	.119	.301	.816	.251	.315	.393	.708
Nate Furman	4.0	.716	.170	.014	.066	.307	.624	.262	.325	.369	.694
Christian Koss	3.9	.679	.177	.013	.077	.157	.813	.254	.292	.371	.662

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.835	.176	.012	.200	.465	.713	.291	.368	.482	.849
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.773	.189	.021	.188	.637	.806	.300	.405	.504	.909
Matt Olson	4.5	.639	.214	.007	.238	.557	.919	.281	.375	.523	.898
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.842	.217	.015	.075	.252	.451	.280	.325	.395	.719
Michael Harris II	4.3	.817	.213	.028	.173	.189	.690	.304	.338	.497	.836
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.723	.192	.009	.126	.318	.510	.277	.340	.432	.771
Sean Murphy	4.1	.534	.162	.009	.150	.411	.954	.239	.330	.416	.746
Austin Riley	3.9	.630	.175	.013	.162	.327	.942	.274	.342	.466	.809
Mike Yastrzemski	3.8	.534	.172	.019	.125	.446	.759	.254	.348	.429	.776

Data notes: away starter Anthony Molina: only 20 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Anthony Molina: only 15 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections